Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil / Previsão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Clinical, epidemiological and climatic factors related to the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic area in northeastern Brazil / Fatores clínicos, epidemiológicos e climáticos relacionados à ocorrência de leishmaniose cutânea em área endêmica no nordeste do Brasil

Abstract Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.

Resumo A leishmaniose cutânea (CL) é uma doença tropical negligenciada, com ampla distribuição nas Américas. O Brasil é um país endêmico e apresenta casos em todos os estados. Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever a ocorrência, os fatores clínicos e epidemiológicos subjacentes e a correlação de variáveis climáticas com a frequência de casos de CL notificados no município de Caxias, estado do Maranhão, Brasil. Este é um estudo epidemiológico retrospectivo e descritivo, com base em dados extraídos da Notificação do Sistema Brasileiro de Informação de Doenças, de 2007 a 2017. Dados máximos e mínimos de temperatura, precipitação e umidade relativa do ar foram fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Foram analisados 201 casos de CL autóctones relatados. A predominância de casos foi observada no sexo masculino (70,1%). A faixa etária entre 31 e 60 anos foi a mais afetada, com 96 casos (47,9%). Do número total de casos registrados, 38,8% dos indivíduos afetados estavam envolvidos em atividades relacionadas à agricultura. A distribuição georreferenciada revelou a heterogeneidade da ocorrência da doença, com casos concentrados nas regiões oeste e sul do município. Foi detectada associação entre a umidade relativa do ar (média mensal) e o número de casos de CL por mês (p = 0,04). O CL continua sendo uma questão preocupante de saúde pública em Caxias. Nesse contexto, há uma necessidade premente de fortalecer medidas de prevenção e controle da doença por meio da rede de serviços de saúde do município, considerando as particularidades locais e regionais.

Clinical, epidemiological and climatic factors related to the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic area in northeastern Brazil.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.

Clinical, epidemiological and climatic factors related to the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic area in northeastern Brazil

Abstract Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.

Resumo A leishmaniose cutânea (CL) é uma doença tropical negligenciada, com ampla distribuição nas Américas. O Brasil é um país endêmico e apresenta casos em todos os estados. Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever a ocorrência, os fatores clínicos e epidemiológicos subjacentes e a correlação de variáveis climáticas com a frequência de casos de CL notificados no município de Caxias, estado do Maranhão, Brasil. Este é um estudo epidemiológico retrospectivo e descritivo, com base em dados extraídos da Notificação do Sistema Brasileiro de Informação de Doenças, de 2007 a 2017. Dados máximos e mínimos de temperatura, precipitação e umidade relativa do ar foram fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Foram analisados 201 casos de CL autóctones relatados. A predominância de casos foi observada no sexo masculino (70,1%). A faixa etária entre 31 e 60 anos foi a mais afetada, com 96 casos (47,9%). Do número total de casos registrados, 38,8% dos indivíduos afetados estavam envolvidos em atividades relacionadas à agricultura. A distribuição georreferenciada revelou a heterogeneidade da ocorrência da doença, com casos concentrados nas regiões oeste e sul do município. Foi detectada associação entre a umidade relativa do ar (média mensal) e o número de casos de CL por mês (p = 0,04). O CL continua sendo uma questão preocupante de saúde pública em Caxias. Nesse contexto, há uma necessidade premente de fortalecer medidas de prevenção e controle da doença por meio da rede de serviços de saúde do município, considerando as particularidades locais e regionais.

Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi: chemical composition, biological properties and toxicity / Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi: composição química, propriedades biológicas, e toxicidade

Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi is a medicinal plant known in Brazil as "aroeira da praia", which has been used in popular medicine as antipyretic, analgesic, depurative and in the treatment of diseases of the urogenital system. On the other hand, the scientific literature has reported that this plant has antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory and antiulcerogenic activity. This review addresses the main biological properties and toxicological effects of "aroeira da praia", in addition to a systematic approach of the compounds that were already found in this species, the great majority of which is present in the essential oils.

Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi é uma planta medicinal conhecida no Brasil como "aroeira da praia", utilizada na medicina popular como antitérmica, analgésica, depurativa e no tratamento de doenças do sistema urogenital. Por outro lado, a literatura científica relata que essa planta apresenta atividade antimicrobiana, anti-inflamatória, e antiulcerogênica. Essa revisão trata das principais propriedades biológicas e efeitos toxicológicos da aroeira da praia, além de uma abordagem sistemática acerca dos compostos que já foram encontrados nessa espécie, estando a maioria deles presente nos óleos essenciais.

Aplicação da termogravimetria (TG) no controle de qualidade da milona (Cissampelos sympodialis Eichl. ) Menispermaceae

This work proposes the application of the thermogravimetry (TG) in the control of quality of Cissampelos sympodialis, known popularly as 'milona'. After the extraction process, the alkaloids became the majority substances and the extracts showed the kinetic behavior of the bisbenzylisoquinoline alkaloids. This seems to be an important and useful parameter for the quality control of the 'milona' extracts.

Thermal behavior of biflorin by beans TG and a DSC photovisual system

This work proposes thermal characterization, of the biflorine, orto-quinon of Capraria biflora L., through the TG and DSC photovisual data. The thermogravimetric results showed that the decomposition reaction biflorine occurs three steps under air atmosphere, The DSC of biflorin presented five peaks relating to phase transitions. The DSC photovisual system demonstrated changes in biflorin.